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Re: Sprint Wi-Max Plan: Who Wins, Who Loses
by
Ross
Mark,
Just a couple of comments ...
First, I believe that Clearwire would welcome this announcement. One of the biggest risks of building a business on a new networking standard, is the lack of user devices and compelling applications. CDMA and UMTS experienced slow early deployments, in part, because there weren't a sufficient variety and volume (necessary to drive prices down) of devices. Ultimately, no one company will monopolize a new access technology - especially WiMax, so having a fellow trailblazer to share in some of the early risk, and to help build the market would, I think, be appreciated by Clearwire
Secondly, I really don't see the makings of telecom boom on a scale that even remotely resembles the boom of the late '90s. That boom was driven by changing regulation in the US, followed by ridiculously cheap capital, and the growth of a huge number of new service providers. This in turn lead to massive procurement contracts funded by vendors that were falling all over themselves to get a bigger piece of the pie. Under these conditions, vendor revenues exploded. Nothing like that is happening today. Heck, on the infrastructure front, there is hardly any money being spent on purchasing WiMax. In fact it is not clear from the Sprint announcement how much of the investment will be on infrastructure. Consider the infrastructure extension contracts that are regularly announced in the US and that are almost always in the order of $1b, and frequently more.
Also consider that annual sales of wireless access equipment is in the tens of billions of dollars. Investment in GSM and CDMA is expected to drop significantly over the next few years, and the growth in UMTS sales is expected to plateau. Should the WiMAX market, or something similar, not grow pretty significantly in the next few years we could find the general wireless market to be shrinking, and not booming at all.
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