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Tuesday, August 1
by
Mark Evans
on Tue 01 Aug 2006 08:51 PM EDT
So, let's do some simple number-crunching with Vonage's second-quarter results. The company posted a loss of $74.6-million, largely due to $90.1-million of marketing costs (50% more than a year earlier) amid fierce competition from the cablecos, which makes attracting customers even more of a challenge. Assuming competition remains as intense and Vonage has to spend as much or more on marketing each quarter, the company's $597.7-million of cash will evaporate over the next eight quarters. Then what? Well, Vonage CEO Mike Snyder believes the company will generate "adjusted operating profits as early as the first quarter of 2008" (I wonder what adjusted operating profits are?) Of course, Vonage's efforts to become profitable aren't helped by the fact it spent more to acquire a customer ($239 vs. $236) in the second-quarter, while churn climbed to 2.3% from 2.1%. To put churn into perspective, Vonage attracted 377,005 new customers in the quarter but lost 121,069. Now, I'm not a financial wizard but these numbers don't pass the smell test. Granted, Vonage may 1.85 million customers but the rest of its financial metrics are going in the wrong direction. It explains why the stock is trading at $6.70 - compared with IPO price of $17.
Update: Jon Ogg has some good perspective on Vonage's numbers, while Om Malik also weighs into the Vonage fray. Meanwhile, the New York Times looks at how large carriers such as Verizon are losing local customers to cable rivals and VoIP service providers such as Vonage.
by
Mark Evans
on Tue 01 Aug 2006 08:24 AM EDT
Forget about an IPO, let's just get YouTube sold right now. Fortunately, Russell Shaw has come up with a list of potential suitors. It includes (drumroll, please!): Adobe, Google, Sony, Time-Warner, News Corp. and Yahoo. I'm don't think Adobe or Sony should be on the list, while I'd be surprised if Time-Warner made such a bold move. As for Google, it's not one to make big, flashy deals. So that leaves Yahoo and Rupert Murdoch. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't be surprised for Rupert called YouTube CEO Chad Hurley for a chat soon. Before any kind of deal - or IPO - is consummated, YouTube will have to tackle is the sticky issue of copyright infringement given more content owners are asking for their content to be removed as YouTube gets more popular.
Update: The Guardian has a story that YouTube overtook MySpace as the most popular "new generation. According to Alexa, YouTube has 3.9% of global Internet visits each day compared with 3.35% for MySpace.
by
Mark Evans
on Tue 01 Aug 2006 08:07 AM EDT
"Let me take a few minutes now to discuss what we're seeing in the CDMA
market, which has been the target of a lot of speculation in recent
weeks. CDMA continues to represent a large and sustainable market. In
fact, when we look at an average of both internal and external
estimates, the total addressable market for CDMA2000 equipment is about
$8 billion plus in 2006, and we believe, based on these estimates by
analysts, it will remain steady or increase slightly through 2010.
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An interesting trend within the wireless industry that doesn't get much media attention is how