So Vonage thinks it's worth $2.6-billion? I wonder what kind of numbers their investment bankers crunched to come up with this pie-in-the-sky number? Vonage is a money-losing business that needs to spend heavily on marketing so it can continue to attract and retain consumers at a time when the cablecos and carriers are start to get more serious about the VoIP market. It strikes me as a desperate attempt by Vonage's investors, who have ponied up more than $400 million in venture capital, to get a decent return on their investment. Now, the $64,000 question is whether this deal will get done. Of course, it will because many institutional investors have no choice but to take a piece of this dodgy deal or risk getting cut out of the more attractive IPOs. I mean, if Corel Corp. - which "competes" against Microsoft in the office productivity market - was able to get its IPO out the door earlier this week, Vonage can do it too. If I was an investor, however, I wouldn't touch the Vonage IPO with a 10 foot pole. Caveat emptor!
Update: IP Democracy has a chart looking at Vonage's top line financials for the past 3+ years. For my post looking at Vonage's S-1 filing, click here.
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Vonage IPO Plans: You're Joking, Right?
by
Mark Evans
on Fri 28 Apr 2006 02:03 PM EDT | Permanent Link
Comments
Re: Vonage IPO Plans: You're Joking, Right?
by
ben wright
on Fri 28 Apr 2006 09:57 PM EDT | Permanent Link
Are you kidding,
Did you see how many gross additions they had int he first qtr. No offense dude but you must be a jealous wannabe. They have a proven business model, if they wanted to stop markeitng tomorrow they'd be rollign in posotive cash. Guess you never heard about laying foundations for the future. Re: Re: Vonage IPO Plans: You're Joking, Right?
vonage maybe adding more subscribers but the COA is very high and the company is bleeding red ink. if vonage decided to stop marketing, the big fear is subscriber growth would tank - it's the out of sight, out of mind theory. as well, you have to wonder how vonage came with such a high valuation at a time when the competition is getting even more fierce.
Re: Re: Re: Vonage IPO Plans: You're Joking, Right?
by
Ross
on Sat 29 Apr 2006 09:45 AM EDT | Profile | Permanent Link
Agreed. But I would go further. As you say; they are losing money, largely due (it would appear) to unsustainable expenditures on marketing. The question is; will they ever be able to obtain a critical mass, such that:
- they can be profitable at that level, and/or - they can achieve a tipping point, attracting more subscribers by sheer virtue of their current customer base (perhaps exploiting the Network Effect) The dilemma they face, is that they have not been able to (from what I can see) create a unique value proposition. More and more, Voice and VoIP are becoming commodities. The cost difference between conventional access and VoIP is shrinking, and almost everyone is promising VoIP today or in the near future. Add to this, the ease with which people will be able to switch Service Providers, and Vonage will learn the lessons of the European and American wireless operators - the cost of subscriber churn can be very high. Now consider the potential implications from negative decisions around so-called 'net neutrality' for VoIP SPs like Vonage, and an investment in this company appears pretty risky. Ultimately, those who succeed in the VoIP space will be those that understand that sustainable value in the VoIP world will come from innovative services and service enablers, and not just cheap voice. Re: Re: Re: Re: Vonage IPO Plans: You're Joking, Right?
by
ben wright
on Sun 30 Apr 2006 08:23 AM EDT | Permanent Link
Folks,
With the greatest respect, please tell me who is making more progess in this space? The gross ads are in line with a company that is making a market so to speak. You cannot argue the marketing spend, how does one know how much is enough to capture a new customer in this unique market. Churn is not an issue Slow your marketing spend down and your profitable. More importantly, with a potential float of only 20% I suspect that Verizon or Sprint Local which gets spun off may take a crack a paying a premium. Thus, a double down effect on the value. I would say invest but carefully. Re: Vonage IPO Plans: You're Joking, Right?
by
Anonymous
on Sun 14 May 2006 11:59 PM EDT | Permanent Link
You make me laugh (and just because of your bad grammar). You sound like the same clowns who thought the Google IPO was a "pie-in-the-sky" number with its initial public offering pegged at ~$84. Remember the old proverb, hero: he who laughs last....
I make more on the Google IPO (riding the clib to $210/share and some change) than you have made your whole life. PS...learn subjunctive tense, please. "If I was an investor, ..." If you WAS half as smart as you think you are, you would know it's "were," champ. Re: Vonage IPO Plans: You're Joking, Right?
by
Anonymous
on Mon 15 May 2006 12:04 AM EDT | Permanent Link
What did you expect from Mark? He's Candian, remember? They have made not a single contribution to the human condition, and this blog is a perfect case-in-point. :)
Canucks make me laugh. USA sneezes; they catch a cold. Socialist pricks. |
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