The investment world operates in cycles - things go up and get frothy before they come eventually down. It's the way of the world - always has been, always will be. So, I can say with some degree of confidence that we're heading for another bursting of the dot-com bubble. The signs of doom are increasingly evident - VCs are scrambling to get a stake in start-ups with limited track records; valuations in the M&A market are climbing, and 20-something entrepreneurs are being seen as cool and credible again. Take a look at the video market where several companies have recently raised VC money, including Veoh, which attracted $12.5-million from a group of investors that includes Michael Eisner.
But perhaps the most troubling indication of the impending dot-com meltdown is a story in the San Francisco Chronicle looking at the resurgence of the city's South Park district. During the boom, South Park was teeming with well-financed dot-coms willing to pay sky-high rent for office space - when they weren't burning money on open-bar parties and billboard campaigns. The Chronicle story talks about how people are moving back into South Park to the point where it's difficult to get a parking spot. If you're looking for a sign of the apocalypse, just read the first four paragraphs of the story, which have easily been written in 2000 or early-2001. Then, start running for the doors as quickly as you can:
The unofficial meal of the Internet comeback is a bowl of Kellogg's Crispix and some fresh-squeezed grapefruit juice - served with pleasure at the Monday morning "cereal bar" hosted by the six-person Internet start-up Rubyred Labs
A few dozen people gather each Monday at Rubyred's Brannan Street offices in the resurgent South Park neighbourhood, eating ceral and chatting about the latest conferences, latest blog posts and latest Flickr photos.
South Park once heralded as the "town square of Multimedia Gulch" and then nearly abandoned when the dot-com bubble burst, is making a comeback.
"All those companies are going back," said Scott Beale, proprietro of Laughing Squid, a Web-hosting service. "It just blows my mind."
Well, it blows my mind there is so much enthusiasm within the dot-com world again. It's fun, it's exciting but it's starting to get unhealthy. The end is near! PeterMe, who worked in South Park during the dot-com boom, has an insightful post - including photographs - of what went on and what's happening now.
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Get Ready for Dot-Com Bust II....It's Coming!
by
Mark Evans
on Tue 18 Apr 2006 11:30 AM EDT | Permanent Link
Comments
Re: Get Ready for Dot-Com Bust II....It's Coming!
by
Chris
on Tue 18 Apr 2006 12:41 PM EDT | Permanent Link
I disagree that we are headed for another bust. A pull-back may be more likely.
To begin with Booms and Busts are created by credit. The vast majority of people get their hands on cheap credit and bid up prices to unreasonable levels. The NASDAQ leading into 2000 and the real estate market of today are prime examples. These markets were flooded by the general population and cheap credit. Once the credit is removed, the bust ensues. But the tech industry today is, as you mentioned, receiving VC money (i.e., much more responsible and accountable money). This is MUCH different then when the general population bids up prices on credit. A quick scan of the NASDAQ market will quickly show that tech stocks (in general) have gone nowhere in the last 5 yrs. The general public is not getting burned again. VC investments hardly constitutes a bubble. While pull-backs do occur from time to time, a repeat of the Dot-Com bust from 2000 is not on the horizon. Re: Re: Get Ready for Dot-Com Bust II....It's Coming!
i guess it's question of semantics - pullback vs. bust. i will concede the missing element within the frothy conditions are IPOs - evident by vonage's seeming inability to get its IPO completed. this should spare many investors a lot of financial pain
Re: Re: Get Ready for Dot-Com Bust II....It's Coming!
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by
Matt Roberts
on Tue 18 Apr 2006 03:39 PM EDT | Permanent Link
I'm not sure if there will be a bust/Pull Back. I see a change in what web2.0 will be 6-12 months from now. As the Google Exit doesn't come about (or any IPO) many of these companies will begin to draw up real business plans around their userbase. I think we'll see the monetizing of Web2.0/socialweb/whatever. There will always be 'guy with spare time making web widget' - but there won't be VC investment in said widget unless he/she build a userbase and an opportunity to leverage them into customers of some sort.
On those that have got venture money. Based on the fact that these guys have venture dollars that can concieveably keep them going for 12-18 months. Any pull back will be in new investments not in the death of existing ones. Just my two cents. Re: Get Ready for Dot-Com Bust II....It's Coming!
by
Jonathan
on Wed 19 Apr 2006 05:20 PM EDT | Permanent Link
It's important to notice the different kinds of companies that are covered in the article you refer to. Rubyred (my company), Laughing Squid (Scott Beale's) and Adaptive Path (PeterMe's) are all self-funded businesses that offer services in exchange for money. We all have reasonably priced office space and solid business models, so there's no reason the think that we'd be destroyed by a slowdown in venture investing (which, I agree, is a bit frothy right now).
The lack of parking in the neighborhood is annoying, but San Francisco is dedicated to having too few parking spaces as a traffic reduction strategy. There isn't enough parking in any neighborhood, and the solution is to ride a bike, get a motor scooter, or take the train to work. We may be headed for a bust, but the fact that people like to work near their friends and get together for breakfast is not an indication of impending doom. If you're looking for impending doom, check out Valleyschwag.com. Re: Re: Get Ready for Dot-Com Bust II....It's Coming!
thanks for the insight. i think web 2.0 companies generating income from selling services will be fine. what worries me are the companies being funded with unclear business models. there appears to be a piling on mentality happening - that's what troubles me.
Re: Get Ready for Dot-Com Bust II....It's Coming!
I have been in the internet trenches for 6 years...selling websites and internet advertising to small and mid sized companies. The difference today is that small businesses are embracing the internet like never before. Not just with websites, but with online apps that can make them more efficient. Many of the startup ideas are the same, but this time around there is a business market that is finally ready to budget for the internet.
And end users are there like never before...sharing photos, buying products, finding love... Re: Get Ready for Dot-Com Bust II....It's Coming!
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