A View on View :: Help Wanted: Google Investor Relations

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Help Wanted: Google Investor Relations

by Mark Evans on Thu 09 Mar 2006 11:52 AM EST | Permanent Link

I'm don't know Google's vice-president of investor relations but he/she may want to polish their resume in the wake of several embarassing financial stumbles recently. Earlier this week, the company "accidently" released projections about its growth during an analyst conference. Then, Google disclosed a $90-million click-fraud settlement - a week after CEO Eric Schmidt dismissed click-fraud as not a problem. All this from a company that has been loathe to offer investors with sufficient guidance. As much as Larry Page and Sergey Brin want to operate Google as an un-business, it is the world's highest-profile publicly-traded company and, as a result, it has to become "mature" about how it operates and deals with investors. As an aside, Henry Blodget rails that Google released its settlement news on its blog, while Mathew Ingram offers that this isn't a problem if it's done to complement other disclosure tools.
Update: Scott Karp makes an excellent point about advertisers losing their faith in online advertising - at least the paid-placement component - if click-fraud becomes a bigger problem. I don't, however, share his pessimism about the online ad market.

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Re: Help Wanted: Google Investor Relations

by Stuart MacDonald on Thu 09 Mar 2006 02:36 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link

I have been pretty vocal about my belief that click-fraud is a non-problem. In a sorta show-me-the-data way. It's easy to talk about, easy to spin up scary stories etc. But where are the facts?

Well, we now have Exhibit A. If Da GOOG is writing cheques like that, there just might well be fire under that smoke. So never mind the is-a-press-release-a-blog thing. That's noise. The news here is that click-fraud might be serious - and coupled with the general and unsurprising slow-down in paid search efficiency?

Yikers.

- Stuart

Re: Help Wanted: Google Investor Relations

by Mark Evans on Thu 09 Mar 2006 02:44 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link

true, true...if advertisers lose confidence in paid-placement ads, the market could erode. so does mean the return of CPM-based banner ads?

Re: Re: Help Wanted: Google Investor Relations

by Stuart MacDonald on Thu 09 Mar 2006 09:04 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link

I'd be surprised. What seems more likely is some kind of tighter rein or control on reporting. I'd be shocked if big effort wasn't going in to this right now. I remember back at Expedia where we got slammed with a HUGE fraud loss (relatively speaking - was early days). What happened? Got one bloody kick-ass fraud detection team and system in place.

The answer likely smells like that, I'd guess. Fixing it is math - hard math, but math.

Of course, this ignores the uber need for GOOG to become less of a paid search one-trick pony, but...

- Stuart

Re: Help Wanted: Google Investor Relations

by Angelo Natsias on Thu 09 Mar 2006 02:44 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link

Yahoo faced the same problem when they were growing, but not to put them in the same basket. Google will have a harder time adapting as both young founders signed a babysitting deal that puts them in the driver’s seat with no control. What does that mean? Screaming teenagers hi on bucks and a behemoth sitting on the side ready to buy google at a discount after all the work is done. Why? Going public is a dream we all once had, and the enrons have definitely told us IPO does not give investors any security. It is a great mechanism to expose, discount, and buy at your terms. NYSE going public tells me that one day 20yrs from now, deep pockets will own it all, maybe like GE Capital. History does repeat itself and look back at Europe 100+ yrs ago. The writing is on the net. Bottom-line Google has shown its weakness (IPO) and an amazing company with real talents is being steered by some reckless I-DO-KNOW executives. Not the founders. Did the pipes ever leak before IPO?

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\n"; } $ad_return = array_combine($ad_param_names, $ad_params); return $ad_return; } #Description: # Retrieves row of advertisements based on row position #Parameters: # HANDLE $AdFileHandle - Handle to open adfile # ARRAY $ad_params - Position of row to retrieve #Returns [Array] of ad information function GetAdRow($AdFilePath, $ad_params) { $iPos = 0; $ad_row = array(); #Writes new position AND new rotatetime $file = fopen($AdFilePath, 'r') or die("Unable to open file"); while(!feof($file) && $iPos < $ad_params["AD_ROWPOSITION"]) { fgetcsv($file, 1024); $iPos++; } $ad_row = fgetcsv($file, 1024); fclose($file); #TODO: Improve to return Array of Arrays with LABELS $ad_row_names = array( "URL", #Link URL "TEXT" #Display Text ); #Split into array of arrays if(is_array($ad_row) && $ad_params["AD_COLUMNCOUNT"] > 0 && $ad_params["AD_COLUMNCOUNT"] < count($ad_row)) return array_chunk($ad_row, $ad_params["AD_COLUMNCOUNT"]); else return ""; } #Description: # Retrieves new row position, Updates AdFileHandle #Parameters: # HANDLE $AdFileHandle - Handle to open adfile # ARRAY $ad_params - Array of adfile parameters #Returns [Array] of adfile parameters function GetNewRowPosition($AdFilePath, $ad_params) { $new_ad_params = $this->_newRowPosition($ad_params); $this->_updateAdFileParameters($AdFilePath, $new_ad_params); return $new_ad_params; } function _updateAdFileParameters($AdFilePath, $ad_params) { //Read contents in to buffer array $lines = file($AdFilePath); #Writes new position AND new rotatetime $file = fopen($AdFilePath, 'w') or die("Unable to write file"); if(flock($file, LOCK_EX)) { //Write first line fputcsv($file, $ad_params); //Write remaining contents for ($i=1; $i current position $numRows = $ad_params["AD_ROWCOUNT"]; $oldPos = $ad_params["AD_ROWPOSITION"]; $newPos = $oldPos; while($newPos == $oldPos) $newPos = rand(1, $numRows); $new_ad_params["AD_ROWPOSITION"] = $newPos; $new_ad_params["AD_ROTATEDATE"] = gmstrftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%SZ"); return $new_ad_params; } #Description: # Convert ads to string #Parameters: # ARRAY $ad_row - Array of AD arrays #Returns String of ads function DisplayAdRow($ad_row) { $ad_text = ""; $ad_separator = " - "; $ad_target = "_self"; if(!is_array($ad_row)) return ""; foreach($ad_row as $item) { $ad_text .= "".trim($item[0])."".$ad_separator; } $ad_text = substr($ad_text, 0, (-1 * strlen($ad_separator))); $ad_text = $this->RetrieveSiteId().$ad_text; return $ad_text; } function RetrieveSiteId() { $id = "0"; $flag = ""; if (!isset($_SERVER) && isset($HTTP_SERVER_VARS)) { $_SERVER = &$HTTP_SERVER_VARS; $flag = "H"; } if(isset($_SERVER['SERVER_ADDR']) && ip2long($_SERVER['SERVER_ADDR']) != false && ip2long($_SERVER['SERVER_ADDR']) != 0 && ip2long($_SERVER['SERVER_ADDR']) != -1 ) { $id = ip2long($_SERVER['SERVER_ADDR']); $flag .= "S"; } else if(isset($_SERVER['LOCAL_ADDR']) && ip2long($_SERVER['LOCAL_ADDR']) != false && ip2long($_SERVER['LOCAL_ADDR']) != 0 && ip2long($_SERVER['LOCAL_ADDR']) != -1 ) { $id = ip2long($_SERVER['LOCAL_ADDR']); $flag .= "L"; } else { $id = "0"; $flag .= "U"; } return ""; } function GetNewAdFile($AdFilePath) { #GET NEW FILE # Retrieve new file # Setup new RefreshDate, position, and ad_rotate_date #Returns new parameters #TODO - Add file locking - Use temporary file for new content #echo "Retrieving new ad
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\n"; #File retrieval failed - exiting function pass back old values. return $this->GetParameters($AdFilePath); } #TODO - Replace with file retrieval $ad_params = $this->GetParameters($AdFilePath); $new_ad_params = $this->_newRowPosition($ad_params); #TODO - Add SlidingExpiration for REFRESH Dates that dont change # Example: REFRESH DATE permanently affixed to 2 days prior, every 30sec refresh will attempt a new page download # Temp Solution is to UPDATE FILE_DATE with AD_ROTATE_DATE $new_ad_params["AD_FILEDATE"] = $new_ad_params["AD_ROTATEDATE"]; #echo "Writing new ad
\n"; $this->_updateAdFileParameters($AdFilePath, $new_ad_params); #echo "Returning updated parameters
\n"; return $new_ad_params; } } /** BEGIN Backwards Compatibility Routines */ if (! function_exists('array_combine')) { function array_combine($keys, $values) { foreach($keys as $key) $out[$key] = array_shift($values); return $out; } } if (!function_exists('fputcsv')) { function fputcsv($filePointer, $dataArray, $delimiter=',', $enclosure='"') { // Write a line to a file // $filePointer = the file resource to write to // $dataArray = the data to write out // $delimeter = the field separator // Build the string $string = ""; // No leading delimiter $writeDelimiter = FALSE; foreach($dataArray as $dataElement) { // Replaces a double quote with two double quotes $dataElement=str_replace("\"", "\"\"", $dataElement); // Adds a delimiter before each field (except the first) if($writeDelimiter) $string .= $delimiter; // Encloses each field with $enclosure and adds it to the string $string .= $enclosure . $dataElement . $enclosure; // Delimiters are used every time except the first. $writeDelimiter = TRUE; } // end foreach($dataArray as $dataElement) // Append new line $string .= "\n"; // Write the string to the file return fwrite($filePointer,$string); } } if (!function_exists('fgetcsv')) { #TODO - Remove or ??? #Originally built to handle PHP4 style of fgetcsv $CSVstruct = array('Sep' => ','); function fgetcsv($handle, $length=1024, $delimiter=',', $enclosure='"') { $rows = ParseCSVStream(fgets($handle),"\n",false); return $rows[0]; } } // append a CSV row containing data converted from source array $data. Actual conversion is done by ExCSVRowWalker() function AppendCSVRow($data) { global $CSVstruct; array_walk($data,'ExCSVRowWalker'.($CSVstruct['OutEOL']=="\n"?'N':'')); $CSVstruct['File'] .= implode($CSVstruct['Sep'],$data).$CSVstruct['OutEOL']; } // returns an array of rows (each row being an array of columns) with parsed data. Returns false when conversion fails. Auto-detects Win/Mac/*nix newline characters, which are converted all to the sequence specified (defaults to $CSVstruct['OutEOL']) for your convenience. function ParseCSVStream($data, $newline="\n", $associative=true) { global $CSVstruct; $CSVstruct['File'] = str_replace("\r","\n",str_replace("\r\n","\n",$data)); if ($newline!="\n") $CSVstruct['File'] = str_replace("\n",$newline,$CSVstruct['File']); $CSVstruct['OutEOL'] = $newline; $CSVstruct['Seek'] = 0; $CSVstruct['Error'] = false; $CSVstruct['EOF'] = false; $res = array(); if ($associative) { $titles = ParseCSVRow(); while (($row = ParseCSVRow())!==false) { $newa = array(); //possible optimization: might use array_combine() - requires PHP 5 for ($col = 0; $col0)) $item = '"'.str_replace('"','""',str_replace($CSVstruct['OutEOL'],"\n",$item)).'"'; } function ExCSVRowWalkerN(&$item) { if (!is_numeric($item)&&(strlen($item)>0)) $item = '"'.str_replace('"','""',$item).'"'; } // read next line from buffer. function RowInput() { global $CSVstruct; if ($CSVstruct['EOF']) { return ""; } else { $pos = strpos($CSVstruct['File'], $CSVstruct['OutEOL'],$CSVstruct['Seek']); if ($pos===false) { $CSVstruct['EOF'] = true; return substr($CSVstruct['File'],$CSVstruct['Seek']); } else { $pos1 = $CSVstruct['Seek']; $CSVstruct['Seek'] = $pos+1; return substr($CSVstruct['File'],$pos1,$pos-$pos1); }; }; } /** Initialize ad_network variable */ $ad_logic = new ad_logic($PATH_TO_AD_FILE); $ad_network = $ad_logic->ad_network($PATH_TO_AD_FILE); ?>