Google's days of ultra-robust sales growth appear to be coming to an end if you buy into eMarketer's forecast the company's sales will climb by less than 30% in 2007 to $11.8-billion from $9.3-billion this year. What is particuarly interesting about eMarketer's thesis is senior analyst David Hallerman's asseration Google will need to become more than just a one-trick pony. "Google will increasingly require alternative channels to maintain its spectacular revenue growth," he said, citing areas such as local search, video marketing and classified ads. A big question facing Google is whether it's willing to make a big acquisition to establish a major foothold in a market with a different revenue stream. Does Google, for example, take a run at Walt Disney or eBay? eMarketer also has a story on the search marketing business.

The San Jose Mercury is on the block, and there are concerns the new owner could reduce the quality of the newspaper as part of a cost-cutting program. This tactic would not come as a surprise given it's the default solution to deal with competititon from rivals such as Craigslist. So how can the Merc be saved? Here's a crazy thought: what about Dan Gillmore heading up a new ownership group. He spent years working for the paper so he has  good insight into how it operates and the people; he has a passion and belief in its mandate and importance to the community; and he's looking for his new gig after Bayosphere's stopped taking new investment. So perhaps Gillmor could go through his rolodex where I'm sure he'll find more than a few Silicon Valley executives with a few dollars collecting dust.
Tags: newspaper, dan gillmor

Maybe the music industry should look forward rather than spending its time and energy making lawyers rich by suing consumers. According to In-Stat, the online music market will soar to $10.7-billion in 2010 from $1.5-billion in 2005. "Consumers are opting for legal ways to purchase music, and more legitimate music sites are available," said In-Stat analyst Stephanie Guza. While Guza's quote is far from earth-shattering, it does put the spotlight on a basic issue the music industry has failed to grasp since Napster emerged on the scene in 1998: if you build it (online music stores offering great selection at reasonable prices), they (consumers) will come. It's puzzling why it has taken the music
industry so long to get its head around this reality. If you think about it, if Steve Jobs hadn't decided to create iTunes and used his influence to drag the music labels along for the ride, the RIAA might still be setting the agenda. It's also telling that while the music industry agonizes about the Web's emergence as a distribution tool, the television and movie industires are being far more pro-active in embracing change. A good example is how BitTorrent is being seen as a potential ally rather than the enemy.