The good thing about writing about technology is there's never a lack of news. This week, however, there was a strange news flow vibe . It started with FON raising $21-million to build a global Wi-Fi network, only to see it be hammered for its recruitment of A-list bloggers as "advisors" and the false claim it had a deal with a Seattle-based ISP. Talk about dropping the PR ball. Then, Vonage filed for an IPO to raise as much as $250-million. No doubt the IPO will happen because it would be the ultimate embarrassment for founder and chairman Jeff Citron and the company's investors if it didn't happen. It's just a matter of price, but all I would say is caveat emptor. Finally, Nortel plans to cough up $2.5-billion to make most of its class-action lawsuits disappear. So what's the link between these events? The common thread is unrealistic expectations and irrational investor behavior. FON's financing, which involves Google, Niklas "Show me the money, eBay" Zennstrom and Cisco senior VP Mike Volpi, is outlandish given its strategic plan is ambitious and totally dependent on Wi-Fi users agreeing to open up their networks. From its inception, Vonage has always been more of an investment play - fueled by Citron's knack for exploiting disruptive technology opportunities - than a business, even though it has 1.2 million subscribers. Vonage is bleeding because it spends like a drunken sailor on marketing to attract customers so, in part, it can build enough critical mass to be acquired or do an IPO. The problem is that turning off the marketing machine could be a disaster given the growing competition. Finally, Nortel did what it thought it had to do to move forward in the wake of its accounting scandal. While the class-action lawsuit plaintiffs will walk away happy, Nortel will surrender 18% of its much-needed cash reserves while diluting its stock by 14%. Nortel's troubles go back to the craziness of the telecom boom in the late-1990s when the sky was the limit and investors dived in with the open support of Nortel CEO John Roth, who boldly talked about more than 30% sales growth a month before the bottom suddenly fell out of the market in March, 2001. Everyone involved was greedy and/or irrational about the telecom market's prospects. At the end of the day, Roth walked out of the shit smelling like a rose with $135-million nest-egg.
So what does it all mean? For the past few months, I've had an uneasy feeling about the whole Web 2.0 investment phenomena because it has reminded me of the goofy giddiness of the dot-com boom. FON and Vonage highlight the current investment environment while Nortel should provide everyone with a much-needed reminder of what happens when the markets get out of hand. It's important to see the technology/investment landscape as a whole rather than isolated incidents because it offers perspective - something that doesn't seem to be too prevalent these days.
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What a Weird Week: $21M, $250M, $2.5B
by
Mark Evans
on Sat 11 Feb 2006 01:40 PM EST | Permanent Link
Comments
Re: What a Weird Week: $21M, $250M, $2.5B
by
bigfish
on Sat 11 Feb 2006 04:05 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link
I've had an uneasy feeling about the whole Web 2.0 investment phenomena because it has reminded me of the goofy giddiness of the dot-com boom
Definately getting some heat, there isn't a month that goes by that some VC isn't offering me $30 million plus for a equity position in my company. I get the impression they just want to find hot sites take a position and flip it. Forget the saying build to flip, VC's are investing to flip. Re: What a Weird Week: $21M, $250M, $2.5B
by
Mark Evans
on Sat 11 Feb 2006 05:14 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link
i guess it all comes down to how much of the pie the VCs want. at some point, you've got to take the money and run - unless you think there's even more money down the road.
Re: Re: What a Weird Week: $21M, $250M, $2.5B
by
bigfish
on Sat 11 Feb 2006 07:24 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link
Worst thing you can do is bring in VC's in my opinion. I work 2 hours a day and net millions/year. In the next 1-5 months Google is going to bring out branded ads and break yahoo's monoply. Those ads are selling between 10-$30/cpm. If I get only $10/cpm then i will net well over 3 million a month for doing next to nothing. Going to a paid service makes 0 sense, as does selling out when growth is 10%+/month
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