As Blood, Sweat & Tears sang in the 1960s, "What Go Up, Must Come Down" - and Google investors are living this adage today as the stock retreated $35 to $400. It seemed like yesterday - actually two weeks ago - that analysts were falling over themselves trying to publish the highest target price on the street. One analyst said $550, another said $600, and yet another postulated it could be worth $2000. So what happened between then and now? The most obvious reason is investors were spooked when Yahoo said its results going forward would be slower than expected. Then, there was disappointing financial news from Intel and Apple this week, which did a good job of puncturing much of the investor enthusiasm for technology stocks. Of course, it doesn't help that Google is talking tough against the U.S. government's request for information. So what does it all mean? Does it suggest Google is only worth $400 or $300 or $200. Well, you can crunch the numbers using price-earning ratios or cash flow multiples or revenue growth expectations or AdSense pricing trend,s but at the end of the day, Google is worth whatever the market will bear. If enough investors are stoked about Google's prospects, it could easily be worth $500 or $1000 or, for that matter, $2000. For Google, the stock price must be a strange animal. On one hand, the company needs a strong strong to keep its employees engaged and recruit the best talent. But I don't believe an obsession with the stock is part of Google's culture. If Page and Brin had any interest in the stock, they wouldn't be running a huge R&D lab with hundreds of PhDs and a throw-at-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks new service/application strategy. Clearly, Page and Brin have a long-term vision that goes way beyond just increasing the stock's value. Of course, whether you're a multi-billionaire, the value of stock is all relative, isn't it. As for what happens to the stock next, many investors have very short memories. If the company comes out with fourth-quarter results that surpass expectations, the stock could take off, and the recent decline will be written off as a buying opportunity.
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Google Stock: What Goes Up Must....
by
Mark Evans
on Fri 20 Jan 2006 04:17 PM EST | Permanent Link
Comments
Re: Google Stock: What Goes Up Must....
by
Anonymous
on Sat 21 Jan 2006 05:44 AM EST | Permanent Link
Mr Evans. You got an election there in Canada now. How important is the internet as a part in the election. We learned from Howard Dean that it does play some part in US but how is the developement in Canada. Is it just as vibrand and living as in US?
Markus Fors Europe Sweden Re: Re: Google Stock: What Goes Up Must....
by
Mark Evans
on Sat 21 Jan 2006 08:02 AM EST | Profile | Permanent Link
there are several bloggers - andrew coyne, paul wells, warren kinsella - covering the election but the blogosphere in canada is nowhere nearly what's happening in the u.s. in fact, blogging in canada overall is still in its early days.
cheers, mark Re: Re: Google Stock: What Goes Up Must....
by
Mark Evans
on Sat 21 Jan 2006 08:34 AM EST | Profile | Permanent Link
markus,
check out this story in the toronto star: http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&call_pageid=971358637177&c=Article&cid=1137711017928 Re: Google Stock: What Goes Up Must....
by
Anonymous
on Wed 25 Jan 2006 06:34 PM EST | Permanent Link
Thank you. That was a super article. I recommend y'all to read it.
/M Re: Re: Google Stock: What Goes Up Must....
by
Mark Evans
on Wed 25 Jan 2006 10:10 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link
markus,
glad i could help! cheers, mark |
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