For anyone fascinated/obsessed by Google's to-the-moon stock price, stop what you're doing right now and read Henry Blodget's post on how the shares could fall down to earth again. He's definitely a voice in the wilderness for now but Blodget touches upon a variety of issues that could easily puncture Google's momentum. First and foremost is the reality that Google is a one-trick pony gets 99% of its revenue from paid-search - despite the introduction of new services such as GMail, Okrut, Froogle, etc. What happens, Blogdet asks, is click fraud starts to take the lustre off paid-search? What happens if the prices paid per click decline, and advertisers take some of their online spending back to traditional media? Blodget also put the spotlight on Google's fixed costs such as Googleplexes, server farms and product development. If the business starts to stall or lose momentum, what happens to margins? Amid the new stock price targets being thrown out and Caris & Co. analyst Mark Stahlman's $2000 implied price, Blodget throws some much-needed cold water on the Google flames. He may be proved wrong about the threat of click fraud and the growth of the paid-search market but it's always a good thing to have against-the-grain thoughts when everyone else is running so hard and fast in the opposite direction.For more on Mr. Blodget's thesis, Clickety Clack has some deep thoughts.
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