So I listened to the Skype-eBay conference call this morning and talked to many people about the deal - and still can't quite get my head around why eBay is so willing to spend $4.1-billion on a company that had sales of $7-million last year (albeit a target of $60 million in 2005 and $200-million in 2006) and doesn't seem to have a sustainable competitive advantage. Here's my second take on how Skype fits into eBay's strategic thinking:
1. Skype is integrated into eBay as a sales tool, particularly for categories such as automobiles and B2B where eBay can score high margins and healthy profits.
2. Skype is a play in the click-to-talk market, which may or may not materialize as the Web's next killer business app.
3. Skype is a pure telecom investment play as it win more users and premium customers at a time when Google and Yahoo have also set their sites on the market.
The problem is I'm having difficult time seeing a single multi-billion dollar slam-dunk component to the deal. Instead, there are several plays that could work out. This isn't a sure-that-makes-sense deal like Paypal where the pieces fit nicely together like a puzzle. Until someone convinces me otherwise, I think this is a high-risk move that will takes a long time to properly assess. At the very least, it's an ultra-aggresssive development, particularly given eBay's spending half of its cash reserves to make it happen.
Among some of the other doubters out there are Oliver Starr, who questions eBay's move into the telecom industry, and Jeff Pulver, who mourns the end of Skype as a disruptive force while getting excited again about Free World Dialup. Om Malik could also be thrown into the doubters pool given he doesn't see Skype as the "white knight" for eBay's slowing growth while wondering why eBay stepped up to the plate after Google and Yahoo passed.  Fred Wilson thinks Skype is a bargain at $2.6-billion but he doesn't buy the "synergy stuff" many people are focused on.
For some interesting insight into Skype's early days, check out James Enck's blog.