Skype must be preparing for an IPO. How else to explain the bizarre rumors it could be bought by Comcast or News Corp. for $3-billion. Didn't realize April Fool's Day happened early this year. The speculation culprit is Robert Cringely, who figures Skype is worth that much on a valuation of $150 for each of its 20 million regular users. An interesting concept but how he can possibly quantify "regular" would be fascinating to know given Skype provides no details on the activities of its premium service (SkypeIn, SkypeOut, Skype Voicemail) customers. So how does Cringely justify his pie-in-the-sky valuation? Here's his explanation:
"Skype absolutely takes money out of the pockets of existing telephone companies. And since the value of a telephone subscriber is generally a known quantity, the value of an active Skype customer can be at least guesstimated."
But $3-billion? Come on, that's so farfetched it's a credibility-buster given Vonage, which generates significantly more revenue, has a valuation of about $1-billion. Speaking of $1-billion, that's the figure Tim Draper threw out half-seriously during the recent AlwaysOn conference. I think Draper was having some fun but maybe that the figure Skype's investor group is seeking - realistic or not.
Give Cringely credit for raising the idea of Rupert Murdoch entering the scene and the possibility a wireless carrier or broadband service provider could be a potential buyer rather than an ILEC or CLEC. If you believe where there's smoke, there's fire, Cringely rumor-mongering could be closer to the truth than you think. Andy Abramson, for one, thinks the News Corp. rumors are far from being far-fetched given Murdoch's affinty for disruptive technology.
Of course, there are others who believe Cringely is blowing smoke. Ethan Stock offers an extensive criticism of Cringely's arguments, and sums it up in three words: "wrong, wrong, wrong".