Another day, another bullish study on VOIP. According to IDC, the number of U.S. households with VoIP will jump nine-fold to 27 million by 2009. My biggest issue with forecasts if I have idea what I'm doing tomorrow, let alone four years from now. IDC clearly believes that all the hurdles facing VOIP adoption that I mentioned in a posting earlier today will disappear - thereby allowing VOIP to PSTN phones in 15% to 20% of U.S. homes. In Canada, Seaboard Group is looking for the VOIP residential market to hit about 3.3 million households in 2009 from 250,000 this year. Before anyone gets carried away with VOIP subscriber growth, let's see how things present themselves this year when most of the major cablecos in North America get into the game.

Given the scarcity of publicly-traded VOIP companies, Shift Networks Inc.'s move to raise as much as $1-million counts as somewhat newsworthy. The Calgary-based company plans to sell 10 million units, which consist of one common share worth 10¢ and a warrant that can be exercised over the next year at 15¢. Shift is a very small company - sales of less than C$200,000 for the first nine months of last year - that provides hosted VOIP services to small and medium size businesses in Calgary and Edmonton. It trades on the Canadian venture exchange for about 9¢. Buyer beware, my friends.

A decision yesterday by Canada's telecom regulator to compel VOIP service providers to provide at least basic 911 access puts the spotlight on the obstacles facing the technology's mainstream adoption. In other words: the things consumers will balk at before taking the leap into VOIP. They include:

1. 911: The lawsuit by the state of Texas against Vonage after a teenager girl in Houston was unable to call 911 during an armed robbery thrust the 911 issue back into the spotlight. While only a small percentage of VOIP users will ever need to call 911, people want to know it's there just in case. The concern about 911 is much like the early days of e-commerce when consumers were cautious about putting their credit cards online for fear they would be stolen in cyberspace - even though the credit card companies would have refunded any disputes.
2. Local number portability: Until consumers can keep their telephone numbers, moving to VOIP will be a challenge. In Canada, Vonage got gained the ability to do LNP.
3. Naked DSL: For anyone with broadband access from a carrier, it makes little sense to pay for a local line and a high-speed Internet connection and VOIP. It's quite another thing if you can get VOIP without a local line.
4. Lack of knowledge about features: There has been so much focus on price, most consumers are unaware of the great features offered by the technology. The ability to easily configure calling features and access voice mail using a Web browser has been woefully unplayed as service providers bash themselves over the head with lower prices. Consumers need to be educated about features because this will emphasize the value of VOIP.
5. Home wiring concerns? While it is technically possible to disconnect the telephone line coming into your home and connnect a VOIP adaptor or modem, how many people are going to do it themselves so all their phone jacks work? I would hazard to guess not many. This means VOIP service providers have to send a technician to do the job, or offer well-priced multi-unit cordless phone systems from companies such as V-Tech or Uniden. If think don't think this is an issue, look at how well Cablevison and Videotron have signed up so many subscribers by sending over a technician.