I'd never heard of William Morrison, an analyst with JMP Securities, until this morning when I read he has raised his 12-month target price on Google to $575 from $400. Morrison became more bullish about Google following the AOL deal, which will give Google "multiple entrées into the branded market, which is important for the company's long term growth outlook." His bullishness and a dot-com company and willingness to throw out such an eye-catching number reminds me of Henry Blodget, who was a little-known analyst with CIBC Oppenheimer, until he boldly suggested in December 1998 that Amazon.com would hit $400. Within several weeks, Blodget's target was reached, and he was soon snapped by Merrill Lynch. (As an aside, Blodget wrote a column in January 1999 that "Unlike with other famous bubbles...the Internet bubble is riding on rock-solid fundamentals, perhaps stronger than any the market has seen before.") Perhaps Morrison is trying to be the next Henry Blodget by jumping out ahead of the pack to capture some attention. If Google rockets forward, then Morrison will be seen as prescient, his status within the analyst community will be enhanced, and he may land himself a new gig. Then again, stock price targets are strange beasts because in many cases they are based as much on emotion than fundamentals. If people believe a stock is going to hit a certain target because analysts issue specific targets, then investors will buy the stock - and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Google is a no-lose opportunity for an analyst looking to make his mark. It's easily the dot-com play right now and the sky is the limit. If you ask me, hooking your future on a rising star doesn't seem to be that much of a gamble.
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The New "Henry Blodget"?
I'd never heard of William Morrison, an analyst with JMP Securities, until this morning when I read he has raised his 12-month target price on Google to $575 from $400. Morrison became more bullish about Google following the AOL deal, which will give Google "multiple entrées into the branded market, which is important for the company's long term growth outlook." His bullishness and a dot-com company and willingness to throw out such an eye-catching number reminds me of Henry Blodget, who was a little-known analyst with CIBC Oppenheimer, until he boldly suggested in December 1998 that Amazon.com would hit $400. Within several weeks, Blodget's target was reached, and he was soon snapped by Merrill Lynch. (As an aside, Blodget wrote a column in January 1999 that "Unlike with other famous bubbles...the Internet bubble is riding on rock-solid fundamentals, perhaps stronger than any the market has seen before.") Perhaps Morrison is trying to be the next Henry Blodget by jumping out ahead of the pack to capture some attention. If Google rockets forward, then Morrison will be seen as prescient, his status within the analyst community will be enhanced, and he may land himself a new gig. Then again, stock price targets are strange beasts because in many cases they are based as much on emotion than fundamentals. If people believe a stock is going to hit a certain target because analysts issue specific targets, then investors will buy the stock - and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Google is a no-lose opportunity for an analyst looking to make his mark. It's easily the dot-com play right now and the sky is the limit. If you ask me, hooking your future on a rising star doesn't seem to be that much of a gamble.
Comments
Re: The New "Henry Blodget"?
by
Anonymous
on Fri 23 Dec 2005 11:50 AM EST | Permanent Link
Google revs from AOL search are $400M, of which, I assume $200M is profit. They gave AOL $300M in credits on AdWords. That's 1 1/2 years of AdWords credit versus profit. That's a major anchor on Google's earnings over the next two years. This is the first sign that Google is entrenching, rather than expanding. I'm gonna bet against $575 in 2-0-6.
-Randy Charles Morin http://www.kbcafe.com Re: Re: The New "Henry Blodget"?
by
Mark Evans
on Fri 23 Dec 2005 12:21 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link
randy,
you may be right about $575 but never under-estimate the power of the bandwagon. i think morrison is betting on google-mania as much as google's fundamentals. if he was looking for 15 minutes of fame, it's already happened. happy holidays, mark Re: The New "Henry Blodget"?
by
Stuart MacDonald
on Fri 23 Dec 2005 02:50 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link
I don't know this Morrison guy from a festive Turducken, and why ever he's making that GOOG call, well, I'm sure he has his reasons -- most likely among the ones so well laid out by you, Mark (as always). But let me tell you, that Mr. Blodget still knows a thing or two about this 'Net stuff. Say what one may about his well-documented, boom-bust mirroring, parabolic (his words) career, but if you take a look at his blog http://www.internetoutsider.com it's clear that his thinking is still super strong and his big-picture understanding of how the pieces come together still thoughtful. Not to mention how tough it must be for someone to come back from *that* and start talking again. Good on him, I say.
- Stuart Re: Re: The New "Henry Blodget"?
by
Mark Evans
on Fri 23 Dec 2005 03:12 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link
stuart,
i agree blodget's got a lot of good insight. it's just going to take some time before people stop focusing on the things he did wrong (i.e. put "buy" ratings on dot-com stocks while dissing them privately) before people start accepting the fact he knows his stuff. Re: Re: Re: The New "Henry Blodget"?
by
Stuart MacDonald
on Fri 23 Dec 2005 04:56 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link
Certainly not an HB apologist, here! Your comment is appropriate, as is his reduced credibility and smaller platform from which to speak (those being the least among other prices he has paid, professionally and financially, and continues to...which I guess opens up another box of worms about harm done to others etc., none of which is my intent). I am simply stating that his commentary today, on its' own merits, is quite good.
Happy Holidays, - Stuart Trackbacks
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