I think that if you are talking search as we know it today, GOOG is in pretty fine shape. It would be super hard for somebody to walk in and take it from them. BUT what you aren't allowing for in your estimation is that search as we know it today will be what it is forever. Fact is, as more and more advertisers pull money out of traditional media for a host of reasons, they will still need some way to build a brand and foster brand meaning, and search as it is today just doesn't do that.

Search today, as a business proposition, is a sales tool - a good one, but still just a sales tool. It is held accountable to the same types of metrics as direct mail and the like, and to be effective requires a given level of "intent" to exist in someone's mind before they begin to use it. This is not how most consumer buying decision making works - it is a longer process, and this "I have intent" point is about a third of the way in.

So, where GOOG could be, um, Amazoned is in *that* area: the top third of consumer decision making; providing a forum for awareness and brand meaning creation that goes beyond 10 words in a paid search listing.

Advertisers will want it; consumers will need it and GOOG isn't there today. YHOO is at least spiritually closer to recognizing it, since they truly see themselves as "media" and are more willing to deport themselves that way. For GOOG, this vacancy at the top of the purchase funnel is a huge weakness to their model, and conversely, a huge opportunity for someone to move in above them and scoop a lot of cash.

- Stuart

sounds like you're making a good argument for google to use some of its financial muscle (check out this week's businessweek) to make acquisition (AOL?) that provide it with "intent". as much as i like google, i think it needs to be more creative strategically. right now, it's doing a terrific job getting as much as it can from the pay-per-click model but i'm looking for its next business model or, at least, an evolution of the existing one.

mark

I think you are half right. GOOG (or somebody) needs to address this need. Especially in the US where mass media is becoming increasingly difficult for advertisers to use efficiently and where they are already voting with their dollars (to wit P&G moving billions out of TV, and online ad spend rocketing up) the need is more urgent.

Where you aren't right IMHO is with the idea that purchasing AOL is a quick way to solve this. Yes, they have a lot of content bells and whistles, but they are to a great extent irrelevant to users and face a whole host of access and other issues. And remember, while they may be "getting" that their walled garden isn't golden, finally, they are essentially still an ISP. Maybe they can be fixed, but swallowing such a busted, icky thing would likely send GOOG into a culture clash tailspin and eat tons of better-deployed resources. Steer clear, and build it yourself would be my recco.

- Stuart