A View on View :: Crystal Ball Gazing Gone Goofy

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Crystal Ball Gazing Gone Goofy

by Mark Evans on Tue 03 Jan 2006 03:34 PM EST | Permanent Link

Does anyone read year-end predictions? Is there any value in them other than entertainment? In the past week, I've certainly been entertained by some of the radical crystal ball gazing being done. James Cramer, for example, expects Rupert Murdoch will acquire the Wall St. Journal as he (Murdoch) continues to build one of the world's most extensive content portfolios, while creating a significant online presence. Here's Cramer's take: "But for Dow Jones, in the last years of Peter Kann's stewardship (he's retiring), finally enough is enough in the stagnant share-price business, and the Dow board will decide to take Rupert Murdoch's offer of, say $50 -- some $20 less than he would hae offered five years ago. News Corp. will probably close all but the editorial board and merge the news staff with that of the New York Post (don't think Rupert doesn't have it in him.) Murdoch will also give joyful Roger Ailes the staff he needs to set up a full-blown business-network competitors to CNBC."

Meanwhile, Paul Kedrosky looks for Wal-Mart to beef up its middling Web operations by acquiring Amazon.com. Kedrosky believes there are four reasons Wal-Mart would be willing to spend $20-billion (plus a takeover premium, no doubt) on Amazon:

1. Wal-Mart lags badly in its own web presence (see the Alexa figure at right).

2. Amazon has built a more viable business than Wal-Mart thought it would.

3. This past year was a tipping point for more ubiquitous and growing presence for online shopping in retail.

4. Wal-Mart can currently afford it. With total cash of $4.5 billion against Amazon's cash of $1.4 billion, and comparative market caps of $199-billion and $20-billion, the time is right. Granted, it would almost certainly be dilutive, but the strategic value would trump its dilutiveness.

Does either scenario make sense? I think there will be plenty of competition for the WSJ, if it ever goes on the block because it's such a well-regarded property. I think there are plenty of people who would see owning the WSJ as a "trophy" as much as a business. As for Wal-Mart/Amazon, it could make sense but you would have to question whether the differences in culture - Bentonville vs. Seattle - would make such a deal work.

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Re: Crystal Ball Gazing Gone Goofy

by Toby Ward on Tue 03 Jan 2006 06:44 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link

Does Bezos want to sell? I was under the impression that Bezos was a man motivated by what he does and not necessarily motivated by money... perhaps there's some personal changes in his life but the old Bezos wouldn't sell Amazon, he'd keep pass it on to his heirs.

Re: Crystal Ball Gazing Gone Goofy

by Mark Evans on Wed 04 Jan 2006 09:07 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link

i think your thesis is probably accurate. i mean, it's hard to give up your biggest entrepreneurial success.

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